Ensight – Jeremy Wright

Marc Orchant (Mr. Suddenly On Skype 24/7) has a post asking both the Google Death Camp (GDC) and Google Critics Society (GCS) to answer 4 questions.

1. Why do you think Google wants to “kill” anything?
2. Will the winner of the next cycle of software evolution come from the cloud or the desktop?
3. Is Google really hurting OSS and small ISVs with their “GOffice” applications?
4. Do you think Google is “head-faking” Microsoft? If so, do you think Microsoft is so reactive as to fall for that strategy?

Here are my answers:

1. Why do you think Google wants to “kill” anything?

I don’t think they’ve shown the capability to kill or dominate a single market since search (and maybe ads). Maps was nice and Gmail is an interesting metaphor, but actual takeup on both has been average at best.

2. Will the winner of the next cycle of software evolution come from the cloud or the desktop?

Nuh-uh. That’s too fast of a shift. If we know anything about users it’s that it takes them years to make adjustments. They’re only just now coming online for “simple” things like 411 lookups and classifieds. Do we really expect them to jump to fully web-based office suites in the next 12-24 months (ie: this cycle)?

Nope. Let’s tie them into existing software with web-based extensions and repositories. Start getting them comfortable. Train them. Then let’s encourage them online, next cycle.

3. Is Google really hurting OSS and small ISVs with their “GOffice” applications?

If they’re hurting anyone, it’s not Microsoft. So, yeah, if it’s anyone it’s smaller projects or ones that haven’t yet gained any traction. That’s *if* they’re hurting anyone.

4. Do you think Google is “head-faking” Microsoft? If so, do you think Microsoft is so reactive as to fall for that strategy?

I don’t think they are. I think that’s just people trying to find signal amongst all the noise. And if they *are* “head-faking” Microsoft, I’d be calling them to account as an investor on what the hell they’re doing wasting development, PR, server and customer service resources on something they aren’t committed to.

And, being honest, I don’t think they’ve thought this move (or any previous one) through enough. This is the Orkut of office apps. Playing around, with no real support. And, no, I don’t think Microsoft will seriously react to this.