Ensight – Jeremy Wright

Notice that I’ve also placed this in the humour category.

1. Microsoft will not release Longhorn.

2. Google will do well until mid-year, when recent missteps will come back to haunt them, primarily due to the recent firing / quitting of most of their marketing department. The second half of the year will see the company struggle on Wall Street, the stock “tank” (down to IPO levels), some reshuffling and a stronger company emerge.

3. Sun will finally get Solaris open sourced. It won’t make a big difference, though it’ll put a lot of pressure on Novell to finally get their act together.

4. Novell won’t get their act together.

5. Apple will continue to dominate the music player market, though its share will drop to 75%, driven largely by consumer demand for more choice, less lockin, etc.

6. Microsoft will release XBox 2 / NeXT. Decent games, a killer graphics engine. Not enough to make any serious dent in the console market. Until Sony releases the PS3, when the two will go head to head. The PS3′ll still be on top, but only with a 40% market share.

7. Storage markets will continue to consolidate. Most large vendors will completely miss the ball with centralized / decentralized / virtual storage, preferring to focus instead on more “mainstream” technologies that enterprises either already have or simply don’t need.

8. Expect 3 surprise hits this year in the theatres. Of course, by surprise I mean mainly that people (like me) continue to pay good money (like mine) for the other crap.

9. Several notable blogging books will be released, dozens of Fortune 500 companies will sign on (hopefully through IB ). Oh, and there’ll be a “blogging meltdown” as bloggers, in their zealousness, make several serious missteps causing some backlash. Nothing seriously major, but they take the halo off the whole thing.

10. I’ll get laid.