Archive for November, 2004

Most readers weren’t around when I wrote this.

It was my views on some of the things we’d see happening in the areas I’m interested in. I obviously didn’t sit down and think about this for hours. It was mainly “what was on my mind” at the time.

I didn’t do bad, considering.

Prediction: Businesses will become more transparent, and will see the value in full-on communication with customers. Result: Bang on. The use of “Open Source” in the business (methodologies, not software) has grown massively. Openness is the new buzzword. If there were 2 books on it before, there are 102 now, and that’s only going to continue to grow. Companies are pushing the boundaries and being rewarded for it. It won’t work for everyone, as there are whole industries where secrecy is key, but it’s working for a lot of companies. Score: Ding, +1 for Jeremy.

Prediction: There will be an increase in the commoditization of products, industries, etc. A shift in how consumers think about product. Result: Not so bang on. There has been a shift to more “value” over image in many areas, but at the same time status symbols like BMW’s and iPod’s are seeing massive growth. Consumers are changing, but I was foolish to think such a deep change would happen in a year. Score: 0: I wasn’t wrong, but I wasn’t right either. Total score: +1.

Predictions: Blogs will become more mainstream. They’ll be recognized more. They’ll become trusted sources. Companies will start to use them. Result: More than bang on. Blogs are “the next big thing” (like it or not). Personally I don’t buy a lot of the hype. But, blogs certainly became mainstream with the elections, and with many of the world’s top companies, thinkers and journalists starting blogs. What was I wrong about? I felt at the time that it’d be more significant if individual voices within companies spoke out. There’s value in that, but there’s even more value for blogs for companies. Score: 0: I was mainly right, but my views on how to use blogs were wrong. Total Score: +1.

Prediction: More companies will merge. Industry segments will be changed completely as a result. Result: Well, “companies will merge” was obvious. Companies always merge. So it’s kinda hard to be wrong on that one. I think I was being lazy when I wrote this. Industry segments were changed, but they were more changed by things like Google’s IPO than them buying Picassa, etc. Consolidation DID happen in the Linux / grid computing / supercomputing spaces. And it did change the industries. But I doubt I was thinking of that at the time. I was probably thinking of larger software companies, which isn’t something we saw. Score: -1. I was wrong.

So, my total score is a fantastic 0. Not bad I guess. 1 completely right. 1 completely wrong. 2 vaguely right / wrong.

I’ll have my predictions for next year later on in December.