Despite what Rob thinks, it’s odd for me to disagree with him, bribery will continue. Rob has written a very, very good piece on why bribery is good and bad. He concludes with:

In the long-term, bribes are complicated and add to the cost of doing business. Companies will take that into account when deciding where to locate, and the countries that require bribes will lose out to the countries that don’t. I think in the long-term, the market will fix this problem. In the way that English has become the language of business, U.S. business practices will become the worldwide standard.

The problem is that this argument is fundamentally flawed, mainly by a misunderstanding about how deeply ingrained bribes are in the system of many countries, specifically African nations.

It is entirely normal to bring along an extra 500$ when doing a 2-week trip to Africa merely to get through border controls. These aren’t the ‘free market’ type bribes that Rob is talking about, thse are grease bribes, but the point is the same. The smaller bribes are taken by the people at the lowest rungs for two reasons. The first is that they see people higher up doing it. The second is that they know the higher they get, the higher priced the bribes become.

Rob also fails to realise that there are two very distinct kinds of bribes. There are bribes which allow you to do exactly what the system does, only faster. For instance, going through routine checkpoints in Africa. If you pay the 10$ bribe you can drive right through, only showing your passport. If you don’t, you will often wait for an hour while the full procedure is followed.

The second kind of bribe, though, is more insiduous and, really, is the one that should be protested against. This is a preferential bribe. One that allows you to either get somewhere the system wouldn’t allow, or one that places you above competitors.

A free market is one which encourages preferential bribing, but it is also the most volatile kind. A company which sets up operations in a country through preferential bribing will always be vulnerable to a ‘correction’ in the market, mainly due to a new political influence in the region.

One who engages in grease bribes hasn’t, in essence, done anything wrong. They haven’t circumvented the system so much as they have increased efficiencies in the process.

To get back to Rob’s post, I don’t see grease bribes going away. Ever. Preferential bribes could go away, but that would require more than just regulation. I believe it’s one of those things that would take at least a generation to change. Otherwise those who were low-level officials taking grease bribes will become high level officials and be naturally inclined to preferential bribes.

It will also take a fundamental shift in foreign companies’ policies. As long as the two forces of a free market are still in play (supply and demand) it will continue to happen. However, once there is no supply (companies paying); the ability for the cultural shifts necessary to reduce the demand (officials expecting) may eventually come into play.

If they don’t, though, companies will quickly start paying the bribes again.

I’d place the likelihood of favorable conditions in which all US companies stop paying bribes, and enough foreign officials in a region stop expecting them as very, very low.